Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that polarised the nation and unleashed turmoil, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two respected journalists from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially tense and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can build support rapidly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our region remains very unstable."
Book Publication Intends to Provoke Discussion
The team have studied the political, financial and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the topic with a tour of public talks that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everybody, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose implications have not been clarified because then you land with an extremely split population where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the people who have won don't know quite what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say such a time is looming, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, making it uncertain if and when there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has obscured the lack of informed dialogue, said McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which could extend past that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has gone on in scholarly circles but scarcely any elected officials or activists seek to involve themselves with the basics. For instance, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, no writer endorses unification or the current situation. They composes two articles that seek neutrality in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling economic and societal data, past examples and structural examples.
Arguments cover identity markers, levies, healthcare systems, pensions, public liabilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The objective is to enlighten and encourage dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there has not yet occurred a discussion," said O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an acceptance of the concept that there could be good arguments on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens say they prefer unity but oppose paying higher taxes or introducing a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin should work out what the proposal from Irish nationalism is aside from just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist thinks a referendum in his era is possible and that it could happen suddenly. "It is possible just a mad or a bad or a feckless secretary of state who says: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have plausible, legitimate points, he commented. "One side will succeed on this issue and the other side will eventually be defeated but both parties has possesses something to acquire from the other's viewpoints."
Request for Broader Debate
Westminster should join the debate, urged O’Toole. "This is about your state. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish question."
